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A recent report from the Institute of German Economy (IW) claims that Germany will face an acute shortage of 128,000 IT professionals by 2027. However, upon closer examination, this forecast appears to be based on uncertain assumptions and inadequate analyses.
The IW study predicts an increase of nearly 14 percent in the number of employees in IT professions by 2027, coupled with an alleged shortage of 128,000 skilled workers. The authors of the study emphasize that the competition for qualified professionals has become a zero-sum game and advocate for increased efforts in vocational training, retraining for older workers, and, above all, more qualified immigration.
A critical look at the methodology of the study raises doubts. The assumption that the demand for IT experts will increase linearly with the projected rise in employment seems oversimplified. Reality is more complex and influenced by various factors, including technological advancements, automation, and changes in corporate structures.
Another point that deserves scrutiny is the definition of "skills shortage." The study suggests that more workforce is needed than the market can currently provide. However, to what extent can retraining and increased efforts in vocational training not close this gap?
While the demand for qualified immigration is undoubtedly justified, the study overlooks existing initiatives and programs to attract international talent. Instead of emphasizing a "stronger service orientation" in a blanket manner, a detailed analysis of existing obstacles for immigrants and their solutions would be more appropriate.
The presented figures, especially the alleged shortage of 19,000 Data Scientists, also require a thorough examination. It is crucial to clarify whether these forecasts are based on actual demand or merely the wishful thinking of companies.
The foundation of the IW study, relying solely on a 14-day count of job postings on online job portals, raises serious questions about its reliability and representativity. Using this data as a central metric neglects essential aspects of the job market, providing an incomplete perspective.
Criticism begins with the data collection method. Simply summing up job offers without considering duplicates or multiple postings of the same position at different locations distorts the actual demand situation - not to mention fake job advertisements to deceive potential customers, business partners and investors. Companies with multiple branches or involved in various projects might advertise the same position simultaneously at multiple locations, artificially inflating the numbers.
Another critical flaw in the study is the inadequate consideration of the experience level of the advertised positions. The reality of the IT job market shows that many open positions are not for entry-level professionals but for experienced experts. The demand often focuses on candidates with proven several years of work experience, specific skills, and mastery of certain programming languages and tools. Overlooking these essential qualification requirements significantly diminishes the credibility of the study.
Another aspect insufficiently illuminated is regional differentiation. The study leaves it unclear where exactly these shortages are located. The job market's reality exhibits significant regional differences, especially in cities like Hamburg, Munich, and Berlin compared to rural areas or medium-sized companies in Baden-Württemberg. Without a targeted analysis of regional distribution, it remains unclear where the challenges in filling IT positions exactly lie.
Overall, the data foundation of the IW study has significant gaps that could lead to a distorted perception of the alleged skills shortage. A more comprehensive and nuanced analysis, taking into account duplicates, experience levels, and regional differences, would be necessary for an informed discussion about the current state and challenges of the German IT job market.
The IW study leaves the impression that it simplifies the complexity of the German IT job market. A more nuanced examination, considering various influencing factors and analyzing existing measures, would be necessary to support the claim of an acute skills shortage.